Between her upcoming dissertation, the imminent federal election campaign, and her work as co-founder of both Shake Up The Establishment (SUTE) and missINFORMED, Manvi Bhalla is very busy. 

She says she doesn’t normally miss big developments in the news cycle on climate change, but she didn’t initially notice the federal government’s announcement in late July of a broad consultation on ‘just transition’ — the idea of transitioning fossil fuel reliant sectors of the economy (and the workforces that run them) to a low carbon future. One of her team members had to point it out to her. 

As the co-founder of a youth organization devoted to climate justice, and a masters’ student who studies how public health authorities understand climate change related health risks, Bhalla knew she wanted to give her two cents in the government’s consultation. But on such a tight timeline with little warning, she and her team had to scramble on their submission. “It really felt buried amongst all the other news,” she tells Future of Good in an interview. “I don’t think the government did a good enough job for how important this consultation process truly is.” 

Canada’s climate aspirations and economic reality contradict one another. The country is promising to slash national greenhouse gas emissions by 40 to 45 percent over the next nine years, yet Canada was the fourth largest oil producing nation in the world as of 2020. Contributing to global efforts to combat climate change will require a radical shift away from fossil fuel use — the International Energy Agency, one of the world’s foremost experts on energy use, said in May that in order to meet the goal of net-zero emissions by 2050, countries must stop all investment in new fossil fuel supply projects. By 2035, the IEA projected, there cannot be any more sales of new internal combustion engine cars.

And then there’s the latest report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change which recently found the 1.5 temperature goal of the Paris Agreement would be reached nearly a decade earlier than expected — by 2030. United Nations Secretary General Antonio Guterres put the blame squarely on fossil fuels. “This report must sound a death knell for coal and fossil fuels, before they destroy our planet,” he said in a statement. “Countries should also end all new fossil fuel exploration and production, and shift fossil fuel subsidies into renewable energy.” 

If Canada is to take the IEA’s recommendations seriously and rapidly phase out fossil fuel production, the ramifications for communities whose livelihoods depend on drilling for oil and gas, running coal mines, or producing internal combustion engine cars could be dire. A just transition would, in theory, pair the radical reduction of polluting industries with retraining or restructuring to ensure an ambitious climate policy does not impoverish local communities. There have been some consultation efforts within Canada on just transition. Perhaps the most well-known are the outreach sessions by Task Force on Just Transition for Canadian Coal Power Workers and Communities in 2018, after the Canadian government committed to a complete phase-out of coal power for electricity generation by 2030. 

Much of the feedback the Task Force received came from unions, government departments, economic development agencies, and coal industry representatives themselves, along with a handful of environmental groups and academics. Social impact professionals and sustainable development experts say that a proper just transition needs to consider far more than just skills and economics of workers, government, and industry. It must also consider Indigenous peoples — those most affected by the impacts of climate change — and the non-profits and charities who are on the front lines of resilience efforts. In other words, just transitions need to consider an entire community, not just those who clock in at a power plant or mine every day.

‘No jobs on a dead planet’

In fossil fuel industry-dependent communities, the fortunes of the local mine, power plant, or sawmill affect everyone. Hard times mean layoffs at the main employer in town — which means even a local Tim Hortons franchise makes less money every month. That, in turn, leads to additional layoffs. Economic stagnation is tough to escape under those circumstances and leads to other social knock-on effects: higher suicide rates, rising mental health crises, higher rates of domestic violence. Social services see these impacts every day — and could play a more prominent role in just transition discussions.

The idea of a just transition was originally championed by unions concerned that workers and communities who depended on polluting industries would bear the brunt of the radical transformation needed to meet the Paris Agreement targets. “We have a vital role to play to protect jobs in existing workplaces and industries by demanding industrial transformation, to organise new quality jobs in the emerging green economy and to fight for the Just Transition measures that will ensure we leave no one behind,” reads a 2015 briefing report from the International Trade Union Confederation. 

But civil society organizations in Canada concerned about climate change have also taken up the just transition mantra. Climate Justice Edmonton, an Alberta-based volunteer-run collective committed to climate justice, routinely calls for a just transition plan for oil and gas-dependent communities, particularly as Alberta’s fossil fuel economy loses jobs. “We need a just transition plan that’s led by the Indigenous communities most impacted by climate change, including immediate emergency funding to rescue and repair from current fires and institute traditional fire management practices,” wrote Climate Justice Edmonton on its Twitter account recently. 

Other civil society organizations are actively speaking with fossil fuel workers about what they’d hope to see from a just transition. Iron and Earth, a worker-led non-profit based in Edmonton, offers training seminars for workers keen on green energy careers and building public support for a just transition. In a July poll of 300 fossil fuel workers commissioned by Iron and Earth, 61 percent said Canada should pivot towards a net zero economy by 2050, while 58 percent of workers believed they will thrive if Canada transitions to a net zero economy. 

Fossil fuel workers are a major part of just transition discussions around the world, including Canada’s most recently announced set of consultations. However, there are plenty of other voices in fossil fuel dependent communities who need to be consulted. In an email to Future of Good, Aarisha Haider, political research manager at Shake Up The Establishment, says she’s pleased to see the Canadian government’s emphasis on ‘people-centred’ just transition, but believes the government must make the effort to help people “see themselves in this space of Just Transition besides fair pay and creation of jobs.” Non-profits like SUTE, Indigenous communities, and youth leaders all have a role to play in the just transition discussion — but sometimes feel left out. 

Pull up a chair — for everyone

The gold standard for just transition discussions around the world is known as a tripartite process: workers, industry representatives, and government. Philip Gass, lead of transitions at the International Institute for Sustainable Development’s (IISD) energy program, says there should be more of what he calls a “tripartite plus” process. “You need meaningful and real consultation with everybody else who is affected or impacted,” he says. “That can be poverty groups, it can be energy consumers, it can be people concerned about public health or education or training.”

And not only do social service and civil society organizations have valuable insight on the impacts of a transition, they could be part of the solution, too. According to an IISD report from 2021, civil society groups are more than willing to do everything from train workers for green energy jobs to develop ways to address the ways in which cultural and occupation identities, such as oil and gas or logging work, play a role in just transitions. “We urge government to recognize the vital roles that civil society groups are playing in supporting a just transition and to leverage partnerships and resources so that successful work can be replicated and scaled up to support the tripartite efforts and social dialogue necessary for a just transition to be successful,” the report says. 

Aside from civil society, governments also need to go beyond consulting the stereotypical energy workers. “We only hear male energy workers,” Bhalla says of just transition perspectives. At SUTE, an organization composed mostly of women, Bhalla wants to try and fill what she sees as a gap between the policymakers who tend to advocate for just transition — predominantly men — and the young women activists who often lead the charge in Canada on a just transition. “We’re always ensuring there’s more of an intersectional perspective towards it and we’re not leaving women behind,” Bhalla says. 

Indigenous people also need to be involved in just transition consultations, but Sarah Hanson, North America regional director at Youth4Nature, says Indigenous youth often don’t see the concept of just transition in those terms. “Most Indigenous youth are wanting land back,” she says. “That’s how they see their part in just transition…that Indigenous people are put in their rightful place as stewards of the land and ensuring that just transition is doable.” 

Figuring out who is impacted by a just transition is only half the battle. The rest is getting them all to sit down at a table together — and ensure they’re actually able to include their input in a thoughtful way. Fortunately, social impact professionals say there are ways of doing that effectively, even with groups who have often been excluded from government consultations in the past. 

Reinventing consultations

Governments looking to facilitate just transitions need to meet communities where they’re at. In a literal sense, that could mean flying out government representatives to coal or oil drilling towns to get the perspectives of local residents — as was the case with the Task Force on Just Transition For Canadian Coal Power Workers. However, it could simply mean being more proactive.

Bhalla says the government needed to better include youth groups like SUTE for their advice on just transition. Academics and other major stakeholders seemed well aware of the approaching consultations, she says, while SUTE felt caught off-guard. “It was a big deal to people who already cared about it and had already offered input on it, whether that was through academic research or whether it was through just being involved in the conversation on this in a different sector,” she says. “But we really felt like the government did not do a very good job.” 

She believes the government should have done a better job consulting young people for their advice on just transition. (After all, youth will be dealing with the consequences of any just transition plan made today). And Hanson says bringing Indigenous youth to the table doesn’t just require more active engagement from the government — they need to pay Indigenous youth. “A lot of it is unpaid labour put on individuals,” Hanson says of consultations. “And there’s no incentive for providing that knowledge.” 

Hanson also says Indigenous communities could have a decolonized space from which to offer feedback for a consultation — this could simply come down to having Indigenous organizers lead it. “I think a lot of people are tired of consultations especially when consultations are continually being done by non-Indigenous partners with the government,” she says. But there are other factors to consider. In northern communities, organizers may need to offer translation services, while consultations focused on urban Indigenous populations may need to partner with an organization with close connections to Indigeous youth.

Ultimately, Hanson says consultations alone just aren’t enough. There needs to be more involvement from Indigenous communities within a just transition framework. “It can’t just be within consultations,” she says. “We know time and time again that consultations — especially with the government — don’t work out,” she says. 

To be continued

With the announcement of the federal election, major government consultations will be in limbo. It isn’t clear whether the Liberals will start it up again if they win, or if another party will take over in the event the government changes. Either way, the need for a just transition for Canada will be more dire than ever, especially as the worldwide boom in EVs and renewable energy displaces the supremacy of coal, oil, and natural gas. 

What a just transition in Canada looks like is still very open to debate — and Gass argues that’s totally fine. He says just transition shouldn’t start with laying out a full-formed vision in Parliament. Rather, he says, it should be more about creating a space where all groups can discuss and debate. Everyone from housing services to educational non-profits to workers themselves have a stake in the just transition of a particular community or region — and change takes time. 

“We have to do this properly. We have to do this carefully,” Gass says. “It’s going to take time and we have to do it by consensus.”

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