Speculation that Prime Minister Justin Trudeau may resign as Liberal leader has Canadian non-profits bracing for potential change sooner than they anticipated.

Rumours intensified over the past two weeks after the Liberals lost a stronghold to the Conservatives in a Toronto by-election. 

The Toronto-St. Paul’s seat was vacant after Liberal cabinet minister Carolyn Bennett resigned in December. The loss was a dramatic blow to the Liberals’ confidence, as the Conservative party hadn’t won a seat in urban Toronto since 2011. 

After the defeat, Trudeau insisted that he would not step down despite mounting criticism of his leadership and a drop in popularity nationwide in the days and weeks before the by-election. 

However, frustration with the Liberal Party doesn’t stop at Trudeau. According to an Angus Reid Institute poll from June 24, “out of two-in-five (37 per cent) of Canadians who are mulling voting for the Liberals in the upcoming election, half say they are hesitant to support the party because the government has not made progress on issues they find important – such as affordability and health care.” 

Two of the prime minister’s own MPs publicly said he must step down after losing Toronto-St. Paul’s, a seat the Liberals held for two decades. 

Social purpose organizations have been anticipating a change in government for the next election, however, the rumors swirling means several are doing their best to prepare immediately. 

“The charitable and non-profit sector is bracing for the change,” national affairs columnist Tim Harper recently summarized in a story for The Philanthropist.

“Leaders are engaging with those who have been insiders in previous Conservative governments, looking for insights in dealing with what could be seismic change. Is this a freight train bearing down on the sector?

“How should (non-profits) prepare for change?”

At this turbulent moment, leaders from across the social purpose world shared their perspectives on the potential impact of a snap election, a new Liberal leader, or the possibility of a new Conservative government. Here’s what they had to say.

Tyler Boyce, Executive Director, Enchanté Network:

“The anti-gender backlash across Canada means capacity funding for gender-diverse serving organizations is urgent to ensure their survival and service to their communities.

“From violent attacks on queer and trans students at Canadian universities to bomb threats to LGBTQ+ community organizations, now is not the time for us to repeat the obvious need for action.

“We need to futureproof 2SLGBTQI+ progress in Canada – and that starts with bold new investments.”

John Cameron, Professor, Department of International Development Studies, Dalhousie University

“A key role is for civil society organizations (CSOs) to try to get issues into public debates that candidates and parties don’t want to talk about – like poverty in Canada, international development assistance, and climate change. 

“Without being even remotely partisan, CSOs can engage voters in thinking about issues that candidates and parties don’t talk about. For example, they can encourage voters to ask questions of any candidates who come to their door, such as ‘What policies will your party put in place to combat climate change?’, ‘What is your party’s position on providing development assistance to poor countries?’

“The problem is that most civil society organizations (CSOs) effectively go silent during election periods, and especially during snap elections (rather than fixed date elections)

“Whenever the next federal election is called, it is likely that public-facing advocacy and campaigning by CSOs will quickly become much quieter, especially if there is a snap election before October 2025.”

Cúagilákv (Jess Housty), Co-lead, Right Relations Collaborative:

“The philanthropic sector often does the most good in spite of itself and in spite of the government that regulates charitable activities.

“We develop a cult around charismatic leaders and federal regulations. But at the heart of it, the people I need to stay in their roles are the people in communities who are breaking down barriers and doing good, real work. 

“I can take or leave Justin Trudeau. But the philanthropic sector will crumble without the people – particularly the powerful, connected, multiply marginalized and deeply rooted people – who make change happen on the ground by alchemizing charitable dollars into community thriving.”

Matt Hadfield, Executive Director, OpenMedia:

“The key initiatives of the LPC over the last two to three years on digital issues include:

• Bill C-11, the Online Streaming Act (passed, CRTC is slowly working on implementation)
• Bill C-18, the Online News Act (passed but largely gutted by government’s negotiations with Google)
• Bill C-26, a Cybersecurity Bill (going to senate this September)
• Bill C-27, reforming private sector privacy and also shoehorning in AI regulation (committee is still working through privacy side, then will need to do AI)
• Bill C-63, the Online Harms Act (+ additional riders) (hasn’t even been referred to committee yet)

“None of these initiatives could currently be called great successes – none are actually in full effect as yet. And Bill C-18 at least has been quite disastrous – we continue to see small media outlet closures, and trying to cope with the unintended consequences of C-18 has required a massive diversion of C-11 funds – more money is now allocated to news media under C-11 than to any cultural content production – TV, movies, radio etc.

“A new liberal leader could try to reassess digital policy and focus on getting legislation like C-26 and C-27 that have broad party support strengthened and passed, and run on an Internet record of actual Internet policy successes rather than focus on divisive proposals like Bill C-63’s most extreme and controversial measures against online hate. 

“There is absolutely a conversation to have about what balance to strike between online freedom of speech and policing illegal hate speech, however I haven’t seen a single credible voice argue that the most extreme parts of C-63, like lifetime imprisonment for hate speech, are justified by having a positive impact on online hate.

“The best excuse the government appears to be able to come up with is that it will make it easier to track incidents of hate crime, which is a pitiable rationale to offer Canadians for such a severe new offence.

“So, I would love to see a different liberal leader drop proposals that are symbolic “getting tough” measures but could have severe, real-world consequences and focus on Internet policy changes that would attract broad favourable expert consensus.

Jean-Marc Mangin, President, Philanthropic Foundations Canada

“The federal government increasingly understands that the non-profit and charitable sector is a critical partner to the wellbeing and prosperity of Canadians, full stop. 

“We have a long history of working with all governments of all stripes, and we do not see that changing, no matter who is in power. 

“The Official Opposition and the current government have both been great allies.”

Debbie Owusu-Akyeeah, former Executive Director, Canadian Centre for Gender and Sexual Diversity:

“Any Conservative government that tries to do a more vocal attack on abortion sees that that doesn’t guarantee the successes that they seek to achieve. 

“But unfortunately, due to the misinformation, the lack of awareness, and just general knowledge of transgender people, they are able to punch down on that group and kind of get away with it. And we’re kind of seeing it happen in real-time.

“The capacity for LGBTQ capacity funding that was renewed in the last federal budget ends in 2026. So what happens to all of these LGBTQ organizations who are not able to keep their doors open?”

Margaret Pfoh, CEO, Aboriginal Housing Management Association:

“After decades of neglect by successive governments, our country is in a housing, indeed social, crisis. We at AHMA have provided clear-cut solutions and calls to action since this government introduced the National Housing Strategy and Act. 

“We have played a pivotal role in influencing policy that supports the basic human right to housing and tied this clearly with Indigenous rights and the ongoing marginalization of the nearly 80 per cent of Indigenous peoples living in urban, rural and northern communities off reserve.

“The biggest concern would be a backslide in this progress and to start from square one with a new government.

“While there has been some incredible progress towards implementing the right to housing for urban, rural and northern Indigenous peoples, it is clear that there is so much more that needs to be done, and a shift in leadership, potentially triggering a snap election could destabilize our progress and shed uncertainty as to the $4B urban, rural and northern fund announced in budget 2024. 

“Never mind the future of our role in Canada’s economic reconciliation where housing intersects.”

Bianca Wylie, Partner, Digital Public:

“Digital policy and law have proven to be one of the most overtly politicized realms in recent history. There never seems to be a bottom to the lack of thoughtfulness on this file, just different partisan flavours of industrial servitude.”

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