What is normal? I couldn’t stop thinking about this in the past few weeks. Normal is a pretty loaded word, I know, considering we’re in the middle of the Omicron wave, but I was curious how quickly our dfaults can change. I glance at my daughter who is sitting across from me as I write this, reluctantly doing online school, and I can’t help but think what is becoming normal for her. From touching elevator buttons with your elbow to watching rocket launches every week to talking about reconciliation with her class — even seeing an electric car charging is normal for her but is novel for me. Then there are the not-so-good things that are becoming normal, like going years without hugging grandparents, not being able to play wind instruments, and the boom of bottled water because public water fountains are closed (I’ll get into that later). 

In 2020, we experienced firsthand how quickly our defaults can change. At the same time, extreme inequities have been revealed: How is it that the world’s twenty-two richest men now have more wealth than all the women in Africa? How is it that Canada has seen the fastest growth of technology companies yet one-third of Canadians take money out of their food budget to pay for the internet? How is it that the Global North set itself up to have most of its adult population vaccinated but the Global South’s vaccination rate is less than five percent? How is it that while GDP has grown, median wages have barely grown in the last 75 years? 

We’re living in a paradox; on a grand scale, while it is the best time in the history of humanity to be alive, this accumulation of unsolved societal problems is causing a collapse of systems all around us, from how we work to how we care to how we give. 

Think about the current era of significant societal transitions — all in the past few decades — and how poorly the social impact world anticipated and responded to it. You might come up with: the gig economy, the skyrocketing postsecondary tuition fees, the mainstreaming of the internet, the systemic racism in community services, platforms that upended housing markets, the proliferation of long-term care homes or the generations of trauma caused by residential schools and the child welfare system.  

You could, as many people have done, say, well, the social impact world could’ve done something differently, something swiftly, something proactively, if we had seen these things coming. At the expense of sounding like a broken record, much of the social impact world didn’t see it coming because it designed its teams, programs, grantmaking, and boards to not see it.   

Here’s a chance to change that. A chance to be anticipatory. But I might as well warn you now: the 11 societal trends and transitions I outline for the social impact world to act on requires a shift in mindset, worldviews and habits. If teams and organizations don’t confront the deep flaws in their ways of governing, strategic planning, programming, and engaging, tougher times are ahead for all. Our society isn’t going to thrive in the transitions ahead by tweaking policy instruments or adjusting the disbursement quota by a couple of points or creating a new granting program or launching a pilot project. It needs something more audacious than that. It requires a culture of anticipatory thinking. And it requires realism about the massive task ahead. 

Future of Good’s 2022 editorial direction #BraveTransition will cover the social impacts of the following trends and others over the course of the year. Here we go. Refill your beverage. Get uncomfortable.

1. With Omicron, the dearth of community programs and supports for COVID survivors will become an urgent civil society agenda item. Will the voices of 2.6 million survivors be heard?

Millions of people who caught COVID will still be unwell. While many have been obsessed with numbers like vaccinations and hospitalizations, we have taken our eyes off the effects of the virus for those who caught it — and their families. While there are studies underway to map the biological pathways for long-COVID symptoms, the follow-on social, economic, and mental effects are crippling. And community services and support programs are grossly lacking for Canada’s 2.6 million survivors and their families.

2. It will finally sink in that climate disasters are recurring annually, upending people’s lives and livelihoods. But will community services adapt as a result?

Canada has been facing escalating climate-related disasters for years. Regardless of the aftertaste left by COP26, heatwaves, floods, hurricanes, mudslides, wildfires and more will be a recurring act in communities across the country. The compounding social impacts of these crises year after year are enormous. There will be considerable pressure on community services organizations, from employment centres to community centres and counselling centres to anticipate sooner and respond proactively in order to better support people affected by climate disruptions.

3. Effects on health and well-being due to mass social isolation among children, youth and elderly populations will be revealed. Will it prompt action?

The avoidance of touch and unease around other people’s breath have tested our mental and emotional bandwidths in almost unthinkable ways. The elderly are suffering in their own homes or long-term care centres, and children are suffering in front of their computers. Society has never faced prolonged social isolation and physical distancing at this scale before. As research begins to emerge, the health and well-being effects of loss of touch, closed social circles, social isolation, and learning loss will continue to be a concern in 2022 for children, youth and the elderly — and creative community action will finally emerge.

4. Trust-based giving and funding will be challenged as an empty slogan. Now what?

People closest to a problem often have the least power to act on it. For a short period, with the pandemic and calls to act on systemic injustices, there was hype around trust-based donations, grantmaking and impact investing, the practice of shifting power and capital to people close to the problem. While online giving exploded in the last two years, there is only a fraction flowing to Black, Indigenous and people of colour-led organizations. In 2022, we will see civil society’s giving, investing and philanthropic apparatus change even more. Trust-based work will be challenged again with institutions, investors and wealthy donors being given another chance to genuinely shift power.

5. Web 3.0 technologies such as blockchain, artificial intelligence and metaverse will gain steam, prompting a critical decision for civil society: do you want to shape these or ignore them and let them shape you?

The digital revolution will see plenty of action in 2022. You may still mock AI or the metaverse or non-fungible tokens (NFT) art, but you’re quickly becoming the minority. If you can, think about where the internet was in the early 1990s or where smartphones were in the early 2000s, and how much of the social impact world was involved in shaping or harnessing it. Now think about what could’ve been possible or what could’ve been mitigated had there been more intentional organizing and action in the early days of either. Civil society organizations will have this year to decide if they want to help close or fuel the digital divide of tomorrow. 

6. The Great Resignation — in the social impact world — is here. Will it prompt fundamental changes to wages, inclusion, professional development, income security and flexibility?

The social impact world needs lots of world-class talent. At the onset of the pandemic, the labour market was full of uncertainty and layoffs: millions of people lost their jobs, and those lucky enough to remain employed remained in their roles for survival. However, as people have a clearer sense of safety, inequities and life goals, questions of how poorly social impact workers are compensated, treated and cared for will bubble up more frequently. Social purpose organizations have typically hidden behind the volatile funding narrative, but it will no longer be acceptable to have gender wage gaps, zero dollars for professional development, and lack of benefits and flexibility. The Great Quit is coming in 2022.

7. Social infrastructure will inch into disrepair, as habits around sharing evolve. Will commercial options take over?

Social infrastructure such as cultural amenities, community centres, public libraries, social services, and sports and recreation facilities add significant value for making places liveable. With the pandemic, they have also been closed, short staffed, and open under reduced hours. Even public water fountains across Canada and around the world were shut off, and so bottled water increased (the industry is forecasted to grow by 20 percent this year). And that’s only water. Public transit revenue is in the red in almost every municipality, as people have flocked to cars. With individual preferences and habits changing, commercially safe options will continue to rise in 2022, pushing civil society and governments to grapple with the stewardship of social infrastructure. 

8. DEI, JEDI, chief diversity officers and related initiatives inside organizations will be forced to confront: what has actually changed, if anything?

Black, Indigenous and people of colour in the workforce felt some of the most severe economic and social disruptions from COVID-19. It quickly became apparent that the pandemic had an ugly, racist side, and people were being sidelined. Sparked by the global activism on the heels of George Floyd’s murder, a number of busineses, INGOs, philanthropic organizations and non-profits moved to create diversity, equity and inclusion initiatives, solidarity and reconciliation statements, and revisit their policies and programs. Ending systemic racism was even mentioned in Canada’s 2021 federal budget for the very first time. In 2022, organizations will be forced to grapple with virtue signalling, positive posturing, and faulty DEI initiatives — and that might mean tough choices, including: letting go of board members, executives, and even DEI programs — to start from scratch.

9. Luxuries will be cheap, and essentials will get more expensive. How will community services and global development organizations support those most vulnerable to rising inflation?

The world economy is now plagued by supply shortages. In 2020 and 2021, stimulus kept demand from tumbling but supply was a different story. And in 2022, it will worsen before it gets better. Even though consumers binged on goods because they couldn’t spend on services and travel, the dreams of an affordable life may become aspirational for many. And all that stockpiling of food barely helped. Food prices rose 40 percent in 12 months, according to the UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization. Those who aren’t able to finance their life through debt this year will feel the squeeze — in energy bills, grocery bills, housing expenses, and more. All of this will put pressure on community services and global development organizations to better support in the short-term while pushing for systemic change when it comes to addressing affordability.

10. Immunity inequality will become a global cause, worthy of campaigns, concerts, and activism. Will Canada contribute? 

By 2023, COVID-19 will no longer be a life-threatening disease for most people in the Global North. It will however still pose a deadly danger to billions in the Global South — some experts say, perhaps for another five years. But the same is, sadly, true of many other conditions. The fragility and gravity of public health systems is now apparent to many, especially to the philanthropic community around the world who, in 2022, will seek to fund a range of proactive local and international initiatives — from vaccine literary programs for children to resilience funds for artists to mental health programs for those with long-covid.

11. Rising distrust in expertise, evidence and institutions will be stronger than ever. How will civil society organizations fare? 

In 2022, distrust will grow in volume. The spread of misinformation, rising public anxiety and increasing polarization — often inflamed by social media will continue to be fuelled by rising distrust in institutions, expertise, data and authority. This skepticism isn’t new — we’ve been primed by fake news for a number of years. According to the latest Edelman Trust Barometer, only approximately 50 percent of Canadians trust NGOs. And while NGOs are seen as ethical, they are not seen as competent to do their jobs well. The endless shifting of narratives and responses to COVID-19 and systemic neglect of support for certain populations, mixed with bandaid programs and empty promises of change will grow louder — and civil society organizations will have to act on rebuilding trust. 

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